Aug 15, 2008

Russia, Georgia, Israel and Iran

Russia's invasion of Georgia has increased the likelihood of Israel bombing Iran.

If Israel had bombed Iran before the invasion then Western Europe might have imposed sanctions on Israel and given extra financial aid to Israeli-hating organizations such as Hamas. But since Western European nations are not going to take any meaningful actions against Russia for its invasion of Georgia, they might find it a bit too difficult to rationalize punishing Israel for bombing Iran.

Many of Iran's nuclear facilities were (I think) built by Russia, and they would no doubt be upset if there facilities were bombed. Before the invasion the U.S. might have been pressuring Israel to not bomb in part so as to not anger Russia. But now I suspect that the U.S. would consider angering Russia to be a beneficial side effect of any such bombing.