Israel should bomb Iran

• Iran is developing atomic weapons.
• The President of Iran recently said "By God's will, we will witness the destruction of [Israel] in the near future"
• The President of Iran previously said Israel should be "wiped off the map."

My conclusion: Israel should bomb Iran to stop its weapons program.

If you disagree with this conclusion please estimate two probabilities:

Let X = the probability that if Iran develops atomic weapons it will use at least one of them against Israel.

Let Y = the lowest value of X for which Israel should bomb Iran.

I would estimate X above 30% and Y below 1%. If you think that Israel (or anyone else) should not bomb Iran, however, you must believe that X is less than Y.