Feb 18, 2007

Broken Window Fallacy

I think this author is claiming that even if global warming fears are silly, we still benefit from worrying about global warming because responding to such fears increases our economic output.

In comparing global warming to Y2k fears the author writes:

"How many of the hundreds of thousands of computer programmers and IT geeks would have been on the street if it hadn't been for the fears of a repeat of the Last Days of Pompeii from the dreaded Y2K millennium virus? Meanwhile the hardware upgrades and new software firewalls contributed several basis points to GDP in 1999."

This is an example of the broken window fallacy. If a little boy breaks a window it appears that his actions help the economy because they create employment for the glass maker. But the money the window owner spent on the new glass would have gone to someone else had his window not been damaged. Consequently, the little boy didn't really help the economy.

Similarly, if not for Y2K fears, many computer programmers would have been working on other projects. These projects would have made us richer today then we currently are. Furthermore, absent Y2K fears, the money spent on Y2K software fixers would have been spent on other goods and services and so created jobs for many people.

(HT Daily Pundit.)