Hillary's 28% chance

By the time of the Dem convention Obama will almost certainly have a majority of pledge delegates and a majority of the popular vote. Obama also has far more campaign funds than Hillary and is better liked by Democrats. Yet Intrade still gives Hillary a 28% chance of winning the nomination. Why so high?


Perhaps the market is factoring in the possibility of a scandal-induced Obama collapse or it's taking into account the Clinton machine's hold over super delegates.