Jan 22, 2008

Voting games and why Edwards might win the Dem nomination

Imagine that at the Democratic convention no candidate has a majority of delegates. To keep everything simple assume that there are 999 delegates at the convention and each delegate is pledged to one candidate and will vote as directed by that candidate. To win the nomination a candidate needs the support of 500 or more delegates.

First assume that the delegates are allocated as follows:
Clinton - 333 delegates
Obama - 333 delegates
Edwards - 333 delegates

The candidate who wins will be the candidate who gets the support of one other candidate. All candidates therefore have equal power coming into the convention.

Now assume that the delegates are allocated as such:
Clinton - 490 delegates
Obama - 480 delegates
Edwards - 29 delegates

As before, the candidate who wins will be the candidate who gets the support of one other candidate. So, just like last time all the candidates have equal power. This is because in both situations, any two candidates working together can determine the winner.
This result seems strange since Edwards has far fewer delegates than Clinton or Obama does.

These examples show that if no candidate has a majority of delegates at the Democratic convention and Edwards has far fewer delegates than Clinton or Obama then Edwards would still have as much convention power as Clinton or Obama does.

This analysis doesn't perfectly capture what might happen at a brokered Democratic convention since the convention will have uncommitted super-delegates who may be more likely to vote for the candidate who has the most popular support. But still I believe my analysis shows that if no Democratic candidate wins a majority of delegates Edwards has a realistic chance of winning the Democratic nomination even if he as far fewer delegates than either Obama or Clinton does.