The Worst Immigration Outcome

In commenting on a previous immigration post of mine economist Don Boudreaux writes:

"If immigrants come to America to suckle on the tits of American taxpayers, why does Uncle Sam spend so much effort trying to prevent these immigrants from working?"

Given that an immigrant is in the country, legally or illegally, the U.S. economy is better off if the immigrant works. So the worst possible immigration policy would be one in which:

(a) it is easy for illegal immigrants to come to the U.S.,
(b) it is easy for illegal immigrants to qualify for government aid such as free schooling for their children, and
(c) it is very difficult for illegal immigrants to get on-the-books jobs where they would be paying taxes.

Unfortunately, current U.S. immigration policy satisfies all three of these conditions. Consequently, I really like the idea behind the immigration reform which is supposed to (1) grant amnesty to illegals and so allow them to obtain on-the-books jobs and (2) make it much harder for new illegals to enter the country.

But I oppose the current immigration reform because I believe it will result in an increase in future illegal immigration. Granting amnesty today makes it more likely that we will grant amnesty in the future and so encourages illegals to enter the country. More importantly, however, amnesty and eventual citizenship for current illegals will make it politically more difficult for the government to enforce border security and keep out the extended families of new immigrants. Thus, granting amnesty to 12 million illegal immigrants today might result in there being 20 million illegal immigrants in the country in 20 years time.